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📈 The Enrollment Cliff

The "Enrollment Cliff" refers to the steady and now accelerating decline in college-aged students, a consequence of the sustained drop in birthrates beginning in the early 2000s. As fewer 15–19-year-olds enter the pipeline, colleges and universities are facing increased competition for a shrinking pool of students.

While all institutions are affected, private, not-for-profit universities are especially vulnerable. These schools often depend heavily on tuition revenue and operate with tighter margins. Yet, they also serve a critical and unique role in American higher education:

  • 🏫 Smaller class sizes that promote deeper learning and connection
  • 👨‍🎓 Personalized advising and mentorship
  • ⛪ Faith-based learning environments that align with personal values
  • 🌍 Liberal arts foundations that prepare students for life, not just work

As states vary in their population trends, some universities are facing steeper challenges than others simply based on location. The map below visualizes the projected percentage change in 15–19-year-olds by state, offering a view of how demographics alone may shape institutional risk.

This demographic shift is not temporary. It is structural, and it requires bold, data-informed planning from higher education leaders—especially those in the private sector.

🗺️ State of the States

Welcome to the "State of the States," where we lovingly reduce decades of educational legacy into four neat toggles and a color-coded map.

Here's the map!

🔍 What This Map Tells Us (Other Than Who Needs a Hug)

A few spicy insights:

  • Northeastern states are feeling the heat. They’ve got legacy schools stacked like cordwood, but fewer teenagers to teach and plenty of overhead.
  • Midwestern states show more range. Some are adapting, others are running fiscal marathons with roller skates.
  • Southern states often perform well — less market saturation, decent efficiency, and tuition that doesn’t trigger a GoFundMe.
  • Mountain and Plains states? Sparse, but surprisingly stable. Turns out, fewer schools + fewer people = accidental sustainability.

This map doesn’t show individual universities — just the average outlook in each state. But if your state is glowing red… maybe don’t open a liberal arts college there in 2028.